Miami Heat Lineup Observations

Top 3 5-Man Lineups with at least 15 minutes together (And not including Mario Chalmers)

  1. Goran Dragic-Dwyane Wade-Justise Winslow-Luol Deng-Hassan Whiteside
    1. O Rating: 114.4
    2. D Rating: 79.1
    3. Net Rating: 35.3
    4. Pace: 102.33
  2. Goran Dragic-Dwyane Wade-Luol Deng-Chris Bosh-Hassan Whiteside
    1. O Rating: 97.5
    2. D Rating: 100.8
    3. Net Rating: -3.3
    4. Pace: 93.96
  3. Tyler Johnson-Gerald Green-Justise Winslow-Josh McRoberts-Chris Bosh
    1. O Rating: 85
    2. D Rating: 104.4
    3. Net Rating: -19.4
    4. Pace: 95.49
  4. Honorable Mention with 14 minutes played: Beno Udrih-Tyler Johnson-Justise Winslow-Josh McRoberts-Chris Bosh
    1. O Rating: 110.8
    2. D Rating: 87.9
    3. Net Rating: +22.9
    4. Pace: 92.53

Not only does this team work together playing at a higher pace, they’re at their best playing small, with either Chris Bosh or Hassan Whiteside sitting out and Luol Deng or Justise Winslow replacing them.

No player in the starting lineup has a three-point shot worth respecting to the point that defenders have to be air-tight on them. Deng, Dragic and Bosh are all respectable, but opponents are more than willing to let them shoot from 25 feet out or further.

Even with Bosh shooting 37% from three, defenses are willing to give up that shot, as opposed to letting him drive.

The main issue that lies in the starting lineup is that a majority of the players in it can’t play to their strengths. Dragic can’t run with two big men (one being a traditional post big), Deng can’t cut when the paint is constantly cluttered, and even Wade finds himself limited on drives.

So far this year, only when the Heat run, and swapping out one of their bigs with Winslow, are they playing their best. Bosh and Whiteside as a two-man lineup feature a pace of 94.82, which is 17th out of 19 qualifying lineups.

Screen Shot 2015-11-27 at 6.06.23 PM

Meanwhile, the two-man lineups with the highest pace also happen to have the top two net ratings.

Screen Shot 2015-11-27 at 6.05.38 PM

Fortunately, there is a solution to the Heat’s Whiteside-Bosh woes, and it starts with Bosh. Whiteside can’t help that he’s 7-foot and a gifted talent in the post. Bosh, however, can help the fact that he’s shooting 36% in the 16-25 foot range.

Here’s Bosh’s shooting % in the 16-25 foot range over the past 4 years:

2014-15: 46% on 220 attempts

2013-14: 48% on 318 attempts

2012-13: 49% on 419 attempts

2011-12: 41% on 292 attempts

His current shooting problems from that area where he takes most of his shots is an anomaly, based on his career. Once that shot begins to fall, and his shooting percentage rises from a career-low 43%, then we can expect more positive results from lineups featuring Bosh.

There’s no question that the Heat will need it.

Bosh was banked on this season to once again be the main source of space on the floor, especially in a starting lineup, once again, featuring no pure three-point threats.

Miami can’t bench any of their starters. Not even Deng, who has not been the problem despite starting out the season shooting 33% from deep. They have no choice but to wait on Chris Bosh to regain his shot.

Because with an offense that currently ranks 4th in the league in points in the paint, Miami will get its opportunities to make open shots.

As a bottom-ten team when it comes to making those wide-open shots, however, and a bottom-five team in three-point percentage, they’re not capitalizing on defenses collapsing on the paint.

As long as that continues to happen, their points in the paint will continue to fall as more and more defenses give space on the perimeter and double-team slashers, as well as rollers in the pick-and-roll.

Top 3 2-Man Lineups with at least 150 minutes together

  1. Dwyane Wade-Justise Winslow
    1. O Rating: 110.9
    2. D Rating: 88.5
    3. Net Rating: +22.4
    4. Pace: 98.97
  2. Goran Dragic-Justise Winslow
    1. O Rating: 102.7
    2. D Rating: 84.8
    3. Net Rating: +17.9
    4. Pace: 100.93
  3. Hassan Whiteside-Justise Winslow
    1. O Rating: 109.8
    2. D Rating: 92.1
    3. Net Rating: +17.6
    4. Pace: 97.62

Bottom 3 2-Man Lineups with at least 150 minutes together

  1. Hassan Whiteside-Chris Bosh
    1. O Rating: 97.7
    2. D Rating: 101.1
    3. Net Rating: -3.4
    4. Pace: 94.82
  2. Chris Bosh-Luol Deng
    1. O Rating: 100.4
    2. D Rating: 101.5
    3. Net Rating: -1.2
    4. Pace: 97.01
  3. Dwyane Wade-Chris Bosh
    1. O Rating: 99.3
    2. D Rating: 99.4
    3. Net Rating: -.1
    4. Pace: 96.70

Other observations

  • Miami’s starting lineup is shooting 27% on 52 three-point attempts
  • The Heat’s best three-point shooting lineup: Dragic-Wade-Deng-Winslow-Whiteside at 36% on 25 three-point attempts
  • The Heat’s best 5-man lineup runs at a pace (102.33) that would be tops in the league

Screen Shot 2015-11-27 at 6.09.24 PM.png

  • The only other Heat 5-man lineup with at least 15 minutes that has a positive net rating features Chris Bosh, Tyler Johnson, Josh McRoberts, Justise Winslow and…..Mario Chalmers
  • Justise Winslow’s net rating (13) doubles that of any other Heat player; Tyler Johnson’s second at 6.3. The only Heat rotation player with a negative net rating is Gerald Green at -1.2
  • While the Dragic-Wade-Deng-Winslow-Whiteside lineup thrives and has already played 64 minutes, the Dragic-Wade-Deng-Winslow-Bosh lineup is a +2.2 with a pace of 114.97(!!) but has only played 8 minutes together
  • There isn’t too great a discrepancy in the Heat’s pace when comparing wins and losses: They run at 96.25 in wins and 95.86 in losses.
  • What is the greatest discrepancy, though?
    • Assist to turnover ratio; Wins: 1.52, Losses: 1.22
    • Reb %: Wins 52.8, Losses: 46.8
  • There is quite the discrepancy in home and away games
    • Net Rating: Home: +10, Away: -4.8
    • Pace: Home 97.20, Away: 93.38
    • Reb %: Home: 52.3, Away: 46.2

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